Big 12 and Pac 10

This should be a classic Pac 10 shootout with the nation's sixth (UCLA) and ninth best scoring offenses squaring off. Arizona State got back into the bowl mix after going on a two-game winning streak sweeping the Washington teams, but with Arizona suddenly playing well Dirk Koetter's crew would like to wrap up the sixth win now against a UCLA squad still shell-shocked from last week's amazing 52-14 loss to Arizona. After weeks of flirting with disaster needing comeback after comeback to stay unbeaten, the Bruin defense was blown apart for 519 yards of Wildcat offense and 315 rushing yards. With the USC game coming up in three weeks, a loss to the Sun Devils might mean a three-game slide and a tumble down the Pac 10 bowl pecking order.
Why Arizona State might win: More then just UCLA's pride is hurting after the loss to the Wildcats. Starting center Mike McCloskey is likely out with a shoulder injury, linebacker Justin London is having problems with his ankle, and star RB Maurice Drew is questionable with a knee injury. Against the firepower that ASU brings, the Bruins can't afford to lose many of its top players, and really can't survive if Drew can't go. UCLA hasn't done anything in the first half over the last six games; that won't work against Arizona State. Arizona struck with its ground game, but UCLA's defense could blink and be down 21 with the way the Sun Devils throw the ball.
Why UCLA might win: Arizona State can be run on. UCLA hasn't been able to get its ground game on track, and Drew and McCloskey's injuries won't help the problem, but when the offense should be able to pound the ball when it absolutely has to. If the MRI on Drew's knee comes back fine and he's able to play, he should make even more of an impact in the punt return game than as a running back. ASU is 114th in the nation in punting averaging a fewer than 29 yards per kick, while UCLA, thanks to Drew, leads the nation in punt returns averaging 26.76 yards per try.  
Who to watch: The Arizona State passing game hardly needs any help with Rudy Carpenter chucking for an average of 362 yards per game over the last three, but the coaching staff would really love to get its two tight ends on the field at the same time. Jamaal Lewis is back from a separated shoulder providing Carpenter with a crisp route runner and a big target, but the offense lost its other top tight end, Zach Miller, who's likely out with a foot injury. Meanwhile, star receiver Derek Hagan is just seven catches away from being the Pac 10's all-time leading receiver. Currently one catch behind Washington's Reggie Williams and six back from Stanford's Troy Walters, Hagan should be able to at least come close this week. He has 15 catches for 254 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks.
What will happen: UCLA is far, far better than it played last week, but Arizona State will get up early and won't let go. The Bruins won't have an answer for what will be a balanced Sun Devil attack until it's too late

It's a rite of fall that Pac-10 basketball coaches declare their conference, from top to bottom, is better than it has been in years.

This year, they might actually be right.

Unlike the past three seasons, when there was an obvious favorite or two, the Pac-10 is a harder call at the top, with Arizona, Stanford and UCLA all getting first-place votes in the preseason media poll, and Washington, California and Oregon also able to make a legitimate case for contenderhood.

And while there are some obvious bottom-feeders, all but Arizona State appear to be on the upswing, making for a conference that should feature few easy nights and lots of intrigue.

Here's a quick look at each team entering the season.

Arizona

THE MISSION: As always, the Wildcats are a contender for the Pac-10 title and a deep NCAA tournament run, despite the loss of all-conference players Channing Frye and Salim Stoudamire. Every other significant player returns, led by senior swingman Hassan Adams.

THE STAR: Adams is one of the flashiest players in the country and after resisting the lure of the NBA, seems set to have his best season. How versatile is Adams? Last year he led Arizona in steals and was second in rebounding and assists.

THE NEWCOMER: The Huskies couldn't keep all of last year's marvelous Seattle high school class at home and one who got away, Marcus Williams of Roosevelt, should make an impact immediate as a swingman for the Wildcats.

THE QUESTION MARK: Can mercurial junior point guard Mustafa Shakur finally play to his potential? Word is he's ready for a breakout year now that the domineering presence of Stoudamire beside him is gone.

The Southeastern Conference lost a lot of underclassmen to the NBA Draft last June . . . most of which were blanked on draft night. But the conference will still be plenty strong across the board, with Alabama and Kentucky looking like the best in the SEC's respective divisions.

Seven underclassmen from the Southeastern Conference entered the NBA draft pool last spring and only one of those (LSU sophomore forward Brandon Bass, a second-round choice of the Hornets) was selected.

 

Nice advice and/or decisions, fellows.

 

The losses did put a dent into the conference’s Class of 2006 (four of the players would be seniors now) but shouldn’t affect the number of teams that will be sprinkled among the NCAA tournament field of 65 in March.

 

The projection from this corner says that there will be at least five SEC members – equal the number who participated last March – playing when first-round games get under way on March 16-17.

 

And, especially if they can roll up impressive non-SEC records and approach .500 in conference, there could be two or three others being tabbed as well.

 

A closer look at the SEC

Projected finish:

EASTERN

1. Kentucky

Frank’s Spin: This is one of those programs whose teams are always good. The annual question is just how good? I’m not going to be convinced that the Wildcats are one of the half-dozen or so squads with the best opportunities to get to Indianapolis on the first weekend of April until I can judge how capable Tubby Smith’s team is of accounting for the firepower that left with Kelenna Azubuike and Chuck Hayes, and the inside determination and leadership skills of the latter. And when will center Randolph Morris be reinstated by the NCAA and how much has he improved from his so-so freshman season? There’s no nit-picking Smith’s perimeter players, though, led by returning starters at guard in Rajon Rondo and Patrick Sparks, and a sophomore wing (Joe Crawford) who seems likely to replace Azubuike.

Postseason possibilities: Some might think we’re soft-selling the Wildcats but, as of now, they appear to be, at best, a Sweet 16 team.

 

2. Vanderbilt

Frank’s Spin: The Commodores won a couple of NCAA tournament games in 2004. And, two seasons later, Kevin Stallings – one of the most nationally underappreciated coaches – may have an even better team on hand. Senior guard Mario Moore (nearly as underrated as Stallings) returns for what only seems his eighth year in Nashville. And Stallings has three players (Shane Foster, Alex Gordon and DeMarre Carroll) who were solid as freshmen and should be exceptional as sophomores.

Postseason possibilities: The Commodores will snag one of those 34 at-large bids on March 12.

 

3. Tennessee

Frank’s Spin: Did you check out Bruce Pearl’s team in the NCAA tournament last March, when the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers pressed and shot their way into a Sweet 16 game against Illinois by upsetting Alabama and Boston College? Look for the Volunteers to exercise the same style on both ends of the floor – only, at least for a season or two, minus quite the number of caliber players Pearl coached at the Horizon Conference school. Guards C.J. Watson and Chris Lofton, who combined to average 25 points per game last season, should flourish in Pearl’s system.

Postseason possibilities: The NIT* (or whatever it’s being called in March), for sure.

 

4. South Carolina

Frank’s Spin: In case you weren’t paying attention, the Gamecocks went 15-13 during the regular season in 2004-05, then reeled off consecutive victories over Miami, UNLV, Georgetown, Maryland and Saint Joseph’s to claim the title of “NIT champions”. The best player off of that team (forward Carlos Powell) has departed, leaving returnees Tre’ Kelley, Tarence Kinsey, Renaldo Balkman and Brandon Wallace as the front-runners to claim that tag for this team.

Postseason possibilities: The Gamecocks will be presented the opportunity of successfully defending their NIT* title.

 

5. Florida

Frank’s Spin: The Gators haven’t missed out on NCAA tournament festivities since 1998 (Billy Donovan’s second season as the program’s coach) but they are in reasonable danger of doing so in 2006 following the loss of three players in David Lee, Matt Walsh and Anthony Roberson who combined to average nearly 46 points per game. Corey Brewer and Al Horford are a couple of sophomores who will keep the Gators snapping at the heels of one of those 34 precious at-large bids.

Postseason possibilities: NIT*, unless Donovan’s guards prove better than they appear to be.

 

6. Georgia

Frank’s Spin: The Bulldogs averaged 12 wins in Dennis Felton’s first two seasons as the program’s coach. They’ll be fortunate to win that many games in Season III. But Felton has a couple of freshmen guards (Mike Mercer and Billy Humphrey) good enough to start, although he returns three quality backcourt players in Levi Stukes,  Sundiata Gaines and Channing Toney.

Postseason possibilities: Check again 12 months from now.

 

WESTERN

1. Alabama

Frank’s Spin: Coach Mark Gottfried lost the bulk of his perimeter scoring attack (in the persons of Kennedy Winston and Earnest Shelton), as well as the guy he recruited to compensate for their departure when JC All-America Ravone George failed to quality academically. So why do I think Alabama, and not Kentucky, could prove to be the best team in the SEC? Because Gottfried (in returnees Chuck Davis and Jamareo Davidson, along with 2005 McDonald’s All-America Richard Hendrix) has the best post play in the conference. He’s also got a sophomore point guard who is every bit the equal of his more nationally touted counterpart in Lexington, Ky. And look for freshman Alonzo Gee to provide the jump shooting that left with Winston and Shelton.

Postseason possibilities: Something will have to go seriously haywire for Alabama not to win 25 or so games (with a couple of them in the NCAA tournament) this season.

 

2. LSU

Frank’s Spin: SEC Player of the Year Brandon Bass departed for the NBA draft after his sophomore season but the Tigers are still fully capable of exceeding last season’s 20-victory/but bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament-performance. Sophomore Glen Davis, he of the NFL offensive left tackle’s frame, and Tasmin Mitchell (who could produce the best freshman stats in the conference), will give Coach John Brady a post presence to rival Alabama’s.

Postseason possibilities: An NCAA tournament experience that should last longer than last season’s.

 

3. Arkansas

Frank’s Spin: The Razorbacks won 18 games last season but only six of them were against SEC competition, which neatly sums up why they didn’t get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. With the conference’s best all-around player in 6-7 Ronnie Brewer, a quality scorer in Jonathon Modica and an underrated sophomore trio of big guys in Darian Townes, Charles Thomas and Steven Hill, there seems, barring injury or other calamity, little room for excuses for not winning at least 10 SEC games this season.

Postseason possibilities: I would guess that anything short of a spot in the NCAA tournament would leave a lot of folks disappointed in Fayetteville.

 

4. Mississippi State

Frank’s Spin: Let’s see, what did the Bulldogs lose from a 23-win, NCAA second round-season? Ah . . . just about everything. Coach Rick Stansbury has an entire starting lineup to replace and some very good freshmen – Vernon Goodridge, Jamont Gordon and twins Richard and Reginald Delk – who figure to do a lot of the replacing.

Postseason possibilities: A non-conference schedule built to offer up 10 or 11 victories should help the Bulldogs get into the NIT*.

 

5. Misssippi

Frank’s Spin: Surpassing or equaling last season’s 14 victories (only four of those coming against SEC foes) could take some doing, unless several newcomers, including Auburn transfer Dwayne Curtis (who averaged just 2.9 points per game in his one season at the other SEC school), can kick start an offense than accounted for just 63.8 points per game last season.

Postseason possibilities: They don’t appear to be likely.

 

6. Auburn

Frank’s Spin: Coach Jeff Lebo, the former McDonald’s All-America and North Carolina guard who I’m guessing is still a better jump shooter than anyone on his squad, returns just one starter in sophomore Frank Tolbert. And he dropped in all of 6.9 points per game during the team’s 14-17 (4-12 in the SEC) debut under Lebo. A quality group of newcomers, including another McDonald’s selection (forward Kovortney Barber, who said “no” to Tubby Smith before signing with the Tigers), obviously, will be a major part of any success the team enjoys this season.