11/10/2005

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions

This should be a classic Pac 10 shootout with the nation's sixth (UCLA) and ninth best scoring offenses squaring off. Arizona State got back into the bowl mix after going on a two-game winning streak sweeping the Washington teams, but with Arizona suddenly playing well Dirk Koetter's crew would like to wrap up the sixth win now against a UCLA squad still shell-shocked from last week's amazing 52-14 loss to Arizona. After weeks of flirting with disaster needing comeback after comeback to stay unbeaten, the Bruin defense was blown apart for 519 yards of Wildcat offense and 315 rushing yards. With the USC game coming up in three weeks, a loss to the Sun Devils might mean a three-game slide and a tumble down the Pac 10 bowl pecking order.
Why Arizona State might win: More then just UCLA's pride is hurting after the loss to the Wildcats. Starting center Mike McCloskey is likely out with a shoulder injury, linebacker Justin London is having problems with his ankle, and star RB Maurice Drew is questionable with a knee injury. Against the firepower that ASU brings, the Bruins can't afford to lose many of its top players, and really can't survive if Drew can't go. UCLA hasn't done anything in the first half over the last six games; that won't work against Arizona State. Arizona struck with its ground game, but UCLA's defense could blink and be down 21 with the way the Sun Devils throw the ball.
Why UCLA might win: Arizona State can be run on. UCLA hasn't been able to get its ground game on track, and Drew and McCloskey's injuries won't help the problem, but when the offense should be able to pound the ball when it absolutely has to. If the MRI on Drew's knee comes back fine and he's able to play, he should make even more of an impact in the punt return game than as a running back. ASU is 114th in the nation in punting averaging a fewer than 29 yards per kick, while UCLA, thanks to Drew, leads the nation in punt returns averaging 26.76 yards per try.  
Who to watch: The Arizona State passing game hardly needs any help with Rudy Carpenter chucking for an average of 362 yards per game over the last three, but the coaching staff would really love to get its two tight ends on the field at the same time. Jamaal Lewis is back from a separated shoulder providing Carpenter with a crisp route runner and a big target, but the offense lost its other top tight end, Zach Miller, who's likely out with a foot injury. Meanwhile, star receiver Derek Hagan is just seven catches away from being the Pac 10's all-time leading receiver. Currently one catch behind Washington's Reggie Williams and six back from Stanford's Troy Walters, Hagan should be able to at least come close this week. He has 15 catches for 254 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks.
What will happen: UCLA is far, far better than it played last week, but Arizona State will get up early and won't let go. The Bruins won't have an answer for what will be a balanced Sun Devil attack until it's too late

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